Weekly Macro Matters
Macro Matters – Weekly review, w/c April 1
Markets experienced a mixed but stable week, with US and global stocks consolidating gains amidst economic uncertainty. US data presented a nuanced picture of resilience and caution, while the Bank of Japan addressed currency intervention concerns. Eyes are now on the US employment report and PMI data.
TradeDay Macro Matters
Macroeconomic / Geopolitical Developments
• US and global stocks in positive consolidation
• US data mixed
• Cook and Goolsbee reinforce Fed stance
• Bank of Japan threat of currency intervention
US and Global Stocks in Positive Consolidation
Global markets showed stability in a shortened trading week, with US indices marking gains for the quarter. The S&P 500 achieved its best first-quarter performance in five years, while the Dow Jones also ended at record highs. European markets reflected resilience, with the STOXX 600 hitting a record high despite economic challenges. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 and China’s CSI 300 indexes saw late-week rebounds.
US Data Mixed
The US economy showcased mixed signals. Q4 2023 GDP was revised up to 3.4%, buoyed by strong consumer spending and business investments. However, consumer confidence dipped slightly due to political concerns. Inflation data painted a nuanced picture—core PCE rose 2.8% annually, while overall spending surged 0.8%, suggesting a complex consumer environment. The Federal Reserve remains cautious, monitoring inflation trends closely before making further rate adjustments.
Cook and Goolsbee Reinforce Fed Stance
Fed officials Austan Goolsbee and Lisa Cook emphasized the central bank’s cautious approach. Goolsbee pointed to three rate cuts this year, while Cook stressed prudence in timing adjustments. Markets responded positively, with increased probability of a June rate cut now at 71.9%. Despite inflationary pressures, the Fed’s focus remains on measured disinflation and economic stability.
Bank of Japan Threat of Currency Intervention
The yen’s decline to a 34-year low against the dollar prompted Japan’s monetary authorities to consider market intervention. The BOJ signaled readiness to act against disorderly currency moves, while maintaining an accommodative stance to support economic recovery. Wider interest rate differentials and stable market conditions limit the likelihood of significant yen depreciation in the short term.
What’s Ahead
Central Bank Watch:
No major activity, but FOMC speakers may provide insights into the US interest rate trajectory.
Macro Data Watch:
• 04/01/2024: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI; US ISM Manufacturing PMI
• 04/02/2024: Germany and Italy Manufacturing PMI; German CPI; US Factory Orders, JOLTS Job Openings
• 04/03/2024: China Caixin Services PMI; US ADP Employment Change, ISM Services PMI
• 04/04/2024: German and EU Composite PMI; EU PPI
• 04/05/2024: EU Retail Sales; US and Canada Employment Reports
Other:
US and European markets will reopen Tuesday after the Easter holiday, with reduced liquidity expected early in the week. The US employment report on Friday will be a key highlight, shaping market sentiment.
Please see our Terms of Use for additional details and restrictions.
Permitted products: Tradeday traders are allowed to trade listed Futures products only; we allow trading on the following exchanges: CME, CBOT, NYMEX, and COMEX. Trading of Stocks, Options, Forex, Cryptocurrency, and CFDs are not permitted nor available in our program or platforms.
Risk Disclosure: Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. You should only put capital at risk that you can afford to lose. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Evaluation Challenge Disclaimer: The trader pass rate of the evaluation program was 28.2% between October 2023 and March 2024. The evaluation is a realistic simulation of trading under actual market conditions and is difficult to pass even for experienced traders. Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and are not a guarantee of future performance or success.
Simulated Trading; CFTC Rule 4.41: During the Evaluation Challenge, users trade in simulated markets. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.
Refund Policy: TradeDay works with a number of third-party service providers that require immediate commitment from TradeDay when an account is opened, as such we are unable to offer a refund after purchase. If you are unsure that TradeDay is the right place for you we strongly recommend you take the 14-day free trial where there is no obligation to purchase, and no credit card is needed to sign up. All membership fees are considered used in full.
TradeDay is not registered in any capacity with the SEC or CFTC.28.2