Weekly Macro Matters
Macro Matters – Weekly review, w/c January 22
Goldman Sachs exceeded Q4 expectations, while Morgan Stanley fell short. TSMC forecasted strong growth driven by AI, and Apple stocks rebounded on AI-driven optimism. US retail sales beat expectations, but March rate cut hopes dimmed amid Fed and ECB caution.
TradeDay Macro Matters
Macroeconomic / Geopolitical Developments
• Weekly US Earnings Recap:
• Goldman Sachs exceeded expectations with Q4 net revenues of $11.32 billion and EPS of $5.48.
• Morgan Stanley disappointed, with EPS below forecasts at $0.85 but revenue slightly beating expectations at $12.9 billion.
• Schlumberger met expectations with EPS of $0.86 and revenue of $8.99 billion.
• Travelers outperformed with an EPS of $7.01 versus the forecasted $5.03.
• State Street delivered strong results with EPS at $2.04, surpassing the forecasted $1.83.
• Stocks Surge on TSMC Earnings and Outlook: TSMC’s AI-driven growth forecast pushed its ADRs up 7%. EPS of $1.44 and revenue of $19.62 billion aligned with expectations, with bullish Q1 2024 revenue projections signaling continued strength.
• Apple Stocks Turn Positive: After downgrades due to concerns about iPhone demand, Apple rebounded as Bank of America upgraded the stock, projecting a 23% surge in 2024. AI-driven features and a potential upgrade cycle fueled optimism.
• US Retail Sales Beat Expectations: December retail sales rose 0.6%, surpassing the forecast of 0.4%, driven by strong consumer demand despite falling gas prices.
• Fed to Enter Blackout Period: The Fed entered its blackout period before the FOMC meeting on January 30-31. Analysts anticipate rates to remain unchanged, with potential cuts later in 2024.
• March US Interest Rate Cuts Hopes Diminished: March rate cut expectations fell as Fed and ECB officials emphasized caution, leading futures traders to scale back predictions.
What’s Ahead
Central Bank Watch:
• Interest rate decisions from:
• People’s Bank of China (PBoC) on Monday.
• Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Tuesday.
• Bank of Canada (BoC) on Wednesday.
• European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday.
Macro Data Watch:
• Tuesday, January 23: EU Consumer Confidence.
• Wednesday, January 24: Global Flash PMI.
• Thursday, January 25: US GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and ECB Monetary Policy Decision.
• Friday, January 26: Tokyo CPI and US PCE (MoM, YoY).
Earnings Watch:
• Tuesday, January 23: J&J, P&G, Netflix, Verizon, Texas Instruments, General Electric.
• Wednesday, January 24: Tesla, ASML, Abbott Labs, IBM, AT&T.
• Thursday, January 25: Visa, Intel.
• Friday, January 26: Caterpillar, American Express.
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