Weekly Macro Matters
Macro Matters – Weekly review, w/c January 29
US stocks climbed to record highs, driven by tech gains and stronger-than-expected GDP growth. Netflix and IBM posted stellar earnings, while Tesla disappointed. The Fed and ECB signaled cautious stances on rate cuts, and the PBoC introduced stimulus to stabilize markets after sharp declines.
TradeDay Macro Matters
Macroeconomic / Geopolitical Developments
• US Stock Averages Extend to Record Highs: The S&P 500 reached all-time highs, bolstered by robust GDP growth and tech sector gains.
• Earnings Recap: Netflix and IBM outperformed expectations, while Tesla faced mixed results and stock declines.
• US Data Surprises: GDP growth beat forecasts, while PCE inflation came in below expectations, signaling economic resilience.
• March Fed Rate Cut Expectations Fading: Economists now predict the first rate cut likely in June rather than March.
• ECB Holds Firm: The European Central Bank maintained high interest rates, dismissing expectations of imminent cuts.
• PBoC Stimulus Boosts Markets: China’s central bank introduced measures to stabilize the economy and markets after a significant downturn.
What’s Ahead
Central Bank Watch:
• Monetary policy decisions are expected on Wednesday from the Federal Reserve and Thursday from the Bank of England.
Macro Data Watch:
• Tuesday, January 30: Japan Unemployment Rate; German and EU GDP (YoY, QoQ); US JOLTS Job Openings and Consumer Confidence.
• Wednesday, January 31: China PMI; German Retail Sales, Unemployment, and CPI; US ADP Employment; Fed Monetary Policy Statement and Decision.
• Thursday, February 1: EU CPI (MoM, YoY); EU Unemployment Rate; BoE Monetary Policy Decision, Report, and Minutes; Global and US Manufacturing PMI.
• Friday, February 2: US Employment Report; Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
Earnings Watch:
• Tuesday, January 30: Microsoft, Alphabet, Pfizer, Starbucks.
• Wednesday, January 31: Mastercard, Qualcomm, Boeing.
• Thursday, February 1: Apple, Amazon, Merck & Co., Honeywell.
• Friday, February 2: Exxon Mobil, AbbVie, Chevron.
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