Weekly Macro Matters
Macro Matters – Weekly review, w/c November 13
Macro Matters – Weekly review, w/c November 13
Macro Matters – Weekly Review, w/c November 13
Global Stock Averages Rally Again, Led by the US
Investors saw strong gains across global equity indices last week, with a significant bounce on Friday. This followed a brief setback on Thursday, triggered by surging bond yields and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s unexpectedly hawkish remarks. His comments briefly ended the S&P 500’s eight-day winning streak, matching its best run in two decades. However, optimism around interest rates peaking revived market momentum.
US Treasury Auctions in Focus, Generally Well Received
Last week’s US Treasury auctions drew attention, with well-received three-year and 10-year note auctions lifting market sentiment. The benchmark 10-year yield fell 6 basis points post-auction, with yields down over 40 bps since the Fed’s November 1 meeting. However, a weak 30-year bond auction on Thursday raised concerns about future demand amid increased government borrowing.
A Slightly Hawkish Powell
Jerome Powell maintained a cautious stance, emphasizing that the Federal Reserve isn’t confident rates are restrictive enough to combat inflation. Despite this, markets remain skeptical about additional rate hikes, with traders pricing in only a 15% chance of a December increase. Powell’s comments briefly pressured stocks and lifted Treasury yields, though markets largely shrugged off his hawkish tone.
What’s Ahead
• Central Bank Watch: A quiet week for central banks, with focus on statements from US Fed speakers.
• Macro Data Watch: Key data releases include US CPI (Tuesday), UK inflation (Wednesday), EU CPI (Friday), and employment reports from the UK, EU, and Australia. US Retail Sales and Industrial Production figures are also due.
• Earnings Watch: As Q3 earnings season concludes, major retail giants Home Depot (Tuesday), Target (Wednesday), and Walmart (Thursday) are set to report.
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